Fascinating points, Robert. I have a few observations if I may:
"This holds especially for people who are less adaptable, like older people.”" This is something of a generalisation, and for a computer scientist rather vague. What counts as "old": people over 30? People over 50? When my father-in-law was 96 we had discussions about electric cars, electric bikes, digital photography etc. I think so-called older people are a lot more adaptable than people give us* credit for! (*I went to school with Methuselah) I know what is meant, I think, but I'm not sure it always holds true!
I was reminded of Amara's Law reading this: people over-estimate the impact of technology in the short-term and over-estimate it in the long-term. Is this something Sjors would agree with?
I LOVE the advert: "finish this building"!
By the way, Robert, I dropped you a long-ass email. If you missed it I'll resend it, hopefully with a different result!
I agree that "older people" is an overgeneralisation, but it was merely an example. Instead, the focus should be on "less adaptable": due to the industrial revolution(s), the world is changing faster than ever before. Generally speaking, this is less of an issue for children, who have to get accustomed to the world anyway, than for people who have been biased by years of experience in a world where the general pace of change was significantly lower. What I am saying here is that there is a difference in the standards we grew up with. Of course, there are, and always will be, exceptions.
I didn't know about Amara's law, but when I looked it up it reminded me of the Gartner hype cycle, which describes the expectations, adoption rate, acceptation, and adolescence of emerging technology. Personally, I believe that the hype cycle more accurately captures the expectations than Amara's law. The reason for this is that, after the hype, people realise the actual capabilities of technology. Then comes the moment where people come up with improvements, but at some point the technology just cannot significantly be improved anymore. At that point it is just waiting till the next technology replaces it, where the cycle starts again. Note that this is my opinion (as you asked), so I am open for a discussion.
Thanks Sjors. I'm familiar with the Gartner hype cycle: it's a standard feature of innovation in education! I think it complements rather than contradicts Amara's Law. I accept your point about being biased from years of experience in a slower moving world - up to a point.
Fascinating points, Robert. I have a few observations if I may:
"This holds especially for people who are less adaptable, like older people.”" This is something of a generalisation, and for a computer scientist rather vague. What counts as "old": people over 30? People over 50? When my father-in-law was 96 we had discussions about electric cars, electric bikes, digital photography etc. I think so-called older people are a lot more adaptable than people give us* credit for! (*I went to school with Methuselah) I know what is meant, I think, but I'm not sure it always holds true!
I was reminded of Amara's Law reading this: people over-estimate the impact of technology in the short-term and over-estimate it in the long-term. Is this something Sjors would agree with?
I LOVE the advert: "finish this building"!
By the way, Robert, I dropped you a long-ass email. If you missed it I'll resend it, hopefully with a different result!
Hey Terry,
Those are some interesting points you make!
I agree that "older people" is an overgeneralisation, but it was merely an example. Instead, the focus should be on "less adaptable": due to the industrial revolution(s), the world is changing faster than ever before. Generally speaking, this is less of an issue for children, who have to get accustomed to the world anyway, than for people who have been biased by years of experience in a world where the general pace of change was significantly lower. What I am saying here is that there is a difference in the standards we grew up with. Of course, there are, and always will be, exceptions.
I didn't know about Amara's law, but when I looked it up it reminded me of the Gartner hype cycle, which describes the expectations, adoption rate, acceptation, and adolescence of emerging technology. Personally, I believe that the hype cycle more accurately captures the expectations than Amara's law. The reason for this is that, after the hype, people realise the actual capabilities of technology. Then comes the moment where people come up with improvements, but at some point the technology just cannot significantly be improved anymore. At that point it is just waiting till the next technology replaces it, where the cycle starts again. Note that this is my opinion (as you asked), so I am open for a discussion.
I hope this answers your questions and remarks!
Thanks Sjors. I'm familiar with the Gartner hype cycle: it's a standard feature of innovation in education! I think it complements rather than contradicts Amara's Law. I accept your point about being biased from years of experience in a slower moving world - up to a point.